Peter Robertson, Australian Financial Review, November 2021
This week former prime minister Paul Keating scoffed at the Morrison government’s new AUKUS alliance and nuclear submarine deal, noting that China is the world’s largest economy and so Australia’s eight nuclear submarines are “like throwing toothpicks against a mountain”.
The analogy fails since the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal is about building our alliance with the United States, both in terms of interoperability and commitment. Shoring this up, following the uncertain commitment of the Trump administration, makes sense.
It’s also important because China’s entry into the geopolitical stage has been clumsy. Rather than embracing the world order that allowed it to thrive, China has become increasingly inward-looking, fixated on symbolism such as the “liberation” of Taiwan, and increasingly insecure about its reliance on long energy and resource supply lines.
Lessons from history suggest simply assuming a peaceful rise would be unwise. We should expect China to throw its weight around.
But how much weight does China have to throw? And what is Australia’s role in America’s strategic ambitions to balance China’s economic and political influence?
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